The current fertilizer market is like a roller coaster
On the 27th of November 27 “Agribusiness Forum 2025” organized by “Verslo žinios” took place in Vilnius. It discussed various challenges and future trends in agriculture. The discussion “Fertilizer Market Trends in 2026” was attended by Sales Manager of “Agrochema” Lina Magilevičienė, Head of Fertilizer Group of “Agrokoncernas” Arūnas Sapitavičius, and Chief Executive Officer of “Scandagra Lietuva” Marius Vasiliauskas.
The discussion was focused on the impact of the geopolitical situation on the fertilizer market, it included talking about fertilizer imports and local production opportunities, participants shared practical advice with farmers on how to prepare for upcoming market changes.
CBAM – a key issue and challenge for the fertilizer market
Carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) which the EU is planning to introduce in 2026 is one of the key uncertainties of the next year. The participants of the discussion agreed that the fact that it is still not clear how exactly this tax will be calculated complicates the plans of both fertilizer producers and importers, fertilizer warehouses are currently empty. Whereas there is no production due to an unstable, politicized market, high costs and unequal market conditions for European producers and importers.
When asked whether fertilizer prices will increase over next year, market representatives mentioned that, like in any other market, the law of supply and demand applies to the fertilizer market – if the amount of the imported fertilizer decreases, European producers will likely not be able to produce a sufficient amount, thus, there is no reason to believe that fertilizer prices will decrease. Whereas if an additional tax is introduced, it will still become part of the fertilizer price.
How can farmers prepare for the changes?
While the market resembles a roller coaster with information changing every day, the only reliable way is to acquire insurance by buying buy fertilizer in advance for at least the first spring fertilization – such advice was offered by the participants in the discussion. Everyone agreed that the worst thing farmers can do now is to renounce fertilization, because experience and research show that if no nitrogen fertilizer is used for a year, the soil will need to be restored for at least 4 years.
The participants concluded the discussion by wishing the market positivity, stability, and not to lose vigilance: to observe information and not wait for the last minute.
